Understand
Asset class behavior before investing
Sanjay (29) has been investing in the form
of sips in diversified equity funds for the last 3 years as advised by his
financial planner for his son’s post graduation funding which is nearly 15
years away. Of late his patience seems to have run out after seeing his equity
funds portfolio in the red for quite some time now. He is thinking of stopping
his sips as he now believes that the equity markets will fall more in the
coming days which will further reduce his portfolio value. Mr. Rao (45) had
invested a lumpsum amount in a gold savings plan a few months ago and is now
ruing his decision as that fund has fallen by nearly 10% reflecting the
correction in gold prices.
Many investors like Sanjay invest in equity
without understanding the behavior of that asset. The very fact that unlike
fixed deposits and postal savings, the returns on equity, gold or real estate
are not assured which makes it vulnerable to price volatility in the short
term. Each asset class is different and so is its behavior during different
situations.
Equity
An understanding of the past performance of
equity markets or equity diversified funds can give an indication of the
volatility that’s associated with equity. Warren Buffet has famously said that “Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the
market shut down for ten years”. This gives an
indication of the long periods of uncertainty that can affect equity markets
but only those who stay put with their investments are suitable rewarded. So if
you do not have the risk appetite nor want to see any risk associated with your
investments, then equity investments are not for you. Secondly invest in equity
only if your goals are of fairly long term after having understood that you may
see long periods of negative return especially in times such as the one that we
are currently going through.
Real Estate
We have seen real estate prices going
through the roof in the last 10 years. Many have forgotten the decade before
2003, when the real estate asset prices had collapsed and many investors who
had invested at the peak in the 1990’s lost out big time when they sold out at
a discount. Real estate as an asset class is good but again if the investment
is done as a long term asset associated with your goal.
Gold
Gold has had a dream run for several
years now. Many investors who invested in gold as an asset class a few years
back have gained handsomely but at present gold prices have been correcting for
the last few months. Therefore one need to understand that even gold prices are
volatile and therefore investing in a staggered manner can be beneficial if
gold has been suggested as a part of your portfolio.
Debt funds
This category offers a huge variety
of funds to choose from depending on the time horizon. While one is at least
aware that equity funds can give negative returns during certain periods, not
many know that there are certain debt funds which display a cyclical pattern in
terms of returns and are very sensitive to interest rate changes. Most Gilt
funds and some income funds typically invest predominantly in government bonds
which are vulnerable to interest rate changes. At the moment the interest rate
is showing a declining trend going ahead which bodes well for gilt funds as the
government bond prices increase resulting in higher nav for the funds which in
turn results in higher returns. A reverse situation can pan out during the
interest rate cycle going up, which can result in lower or negative returns in
gilt funds.
The intention of a well diversified
portfolio is to reduce risk and allocate assets as per your goals and time
horizon. Secondly diversified portfolio is relevant because during different
time periods, there could be one asset class which will perform better than the
other. Therefore understanding each asset class before making it part of your
portfolio is important in order to avoid any knee jerk reactions at extreme
situations which might nullify the entire objective of building the diversified
portfolio.
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